Current reading (Oct 18, 03:12 PM ET): modeled recession-risk is 27/100 (market-implied 7%, Sahm rule not triggered). If a recession comes, the type lean is Stagflationary (82/100 on a disinflationary-to-stagflationary scale). If a recession hits, the data points to the STAGFLATIONARY kind (Fed boxed in, inflation sticky). That regime punishes long bonds and favors cash / short T-bills. Recession risk is low.